Proponents of the impeachment complaints against Vice President Sara Duterte may find their efforts unsuccessful in securing her removal from office,

lawyer and former Cagayan de Oro vice mayor Antonio Soriano said.

Soriano, convener of the Citizens’ Watch for Good Governance,

said during a Rappler Talk episode titled “Can the Sara Duterte Impeachment Gambit Succeed” on Thursday, December. 5,

that the filers of the impeachment complaints must first prove culpability for the vice president’s alleged misconduct before their claims can hold water.

Soriano specifically emphasized that Duterte’s threats against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. cannot be used as grounds for impeachment because the intent behind her statement has yet to be proven.

To recall, Duterte made the controversial statement during a Zoom meeting on November 23. She claimed to have made arrangements with an assassin to kill the president, First Lady Liza Araneta Marcos, and Speaker Martin Romualdez if an alleged plot to kill her were ever initiated.

“It is not [a ground for impeachment] because ‘culpable,’ meaning to say, there was really that intent. It has to be proven,” Soriano said.

Many of Duterte’s allies have come to her defense, asserting that her statement was taken out of context, and was merely a natural response to political persecution.

Despite this, Soriano – who admitted being a supporter of the vice president – described her threat as irresponsible and uncalled for, and something that could be used against her in a regular court, but not before an impeachment court.

He said it was “fortunate” that the Department of Justice (DOJ) is processing findings from the House quad-committee hearings to prepare for the filing of criminal cases against Duterte.

On November 26, the National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) served Duterte a subpoena, requiring her to appear before NBI Director Jaime Santiago on November 29 in connection with its probe into her alleged grave threats and possible violations of the Anti-Terror Law.

Duterte was a no-show, citing short notice and claiming in a letter to Santiago that she had been informed too late about the postponement of a House hearing on her alleged fund misuse, which was originally set for the same day. Her rescheduled NBI appearance is expected on December 11.

‘Shotgun approach’

Under Article XI of the 1987 Philippine Constitution, the president, vice president, members of the Supreme Court, members of constitutional commissions, and the Ombudsman may be removed from office through impeachment for culpable violations of the Constitution, treason, bribery, graft and corruption, other high crimes, or betrayal of public trust.

The first impeachment complaint against Duterte, filed on Monday, December 2, cited graft and corruption, bribery, betrayal of public trust, and other high crimes, including Duterte’s alleged death threat against the president.

A second complaint, filed on Wednesday, December 4, accused Duterte of abusing confidential funds, “mocking” audit processes in the disbursement of those funds, skipping budget deliberations, and evading questions about her office’s use of public funds.

Soriano said he noted several flaws in the grounds cited in the complaints. For instance, he argued that accusations related to Duterte’s tenure as Davao City mayor should not have been included since a mayor is not among the impeachable officials listed in the Constitution.

“You can only be impeached if you’re an impeachable officer, so since a mayor of a city is not part of the impeachable officers, that should not be included,” Soriano told Rappler.

He also questioned the inclusion of the alleged misuse of confidential funds in the complaints, as such details cannot be publicly disclosed. When asked whether Duterte’s bank accounts could serve as evidence, Soriano clarified that a court order would be required to compel banks to disclose account information.

Soriano further explained that if the Commission on Audit (COA) were to identify discrepancies in Duterte’s financial reports, she would still be entitled to due process, including the opportunity to correct any errors in those reports.

“What they are doing is they are making this [shotgun] approach. They’re throwing out a lot of pellets, hoping against hope that one of the pellets will probably hit the mark,” Soriano said.

Soriano said at least 16 votes from senators would be needed to convict Duterte in an impeachment trial. He said the present composition of the Senate likely favors Duterte.

With the holiday season approaching and breaks in February due to the campaign period for the 2025 elections, the processing of the complaints may face delays, he said.

Despite this, Soriano said, the impeachment move might work to the congressmen’s advantage as they anticipate Duterte’s allies, particularly those under the Partido Demokratiko Pilipino-Lakas ng Bayan (PDP-Laban), losing their seats in the upcoming elections.

However, Soriano also said the impeachment attempt could ultimately benefit Duterte herself, and even boost her winning chances should she decide to seek the presidency in 2028.